First time unemployment topped 10%

First time unemployment topped 10% for the first time since 1983 (see chart below courtesy chartoftheday.com), well above the Administration’s peak estimate of 8.5% they projected in February. Temporary employment, typically a leading indicator of hiring, rose for the third straight month, increasing 33.7K in October. Without that increase the employment picture would have been significantly weaker. Unofficial estimates of the “underemployed”, i.e. those wishing to be employed full time but unable to obtain employment, rose 1% to 17.5%. The second chart below, courtesy of Barry Ritholtz, shows the number of unemployed longer than 27 weeks, dating back to 1948. Even if the economy stabilizes and hiring moves back into a 150K-200K per month range, it could take 3-5 years to achieve prior levels of employment.